A New York Times report has revealed a potentially significant shift in the position of the Donald Trump administration: Washington is preparing a separate package of economic deals with Russia before any peace agreement or ceasefire in Ukraine is reached.
Key points from the NYT report:
Premature economic concessions to the Kremlin. The White House has reportedly moved away from its previous position that business ties with Russia should not be restored until the war is fully over. Trump’s special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are considering lifting restrictions and launching joint business projects, ranging from resource development and metallurgy to geological exploration in the Arctic, as a potential “lever” and a means of incentivizing Moscow.
The outcome of Kushner’s Moscow-Kyiv shuttle diplomacy. The envoys’ efforts indicate that the US is seeking an agreement with Vladimir Putin, even before a broader settlement is reached. After lengthy closed-door talks in the Kremlin, the envoys came to Kyiv not with increased pressure on the aggressor, but with efforts to persuade Ukraine to make concessions.
Pressure on Ukraine instead of pressure on the aggressor. As Putin maintains a hardline position and demands concessions from Kyiv, the Trump team is reportedly seeking a “compromise” not through stronger sanctions or increased military support for Ukraine, but through economic incentives for Russia and pressure on the Ukrainian leadership.
A challenge to international law. Attempts to restore trade with a state that continues its war against Ukraine could be seen as normalizing Russian aggression. The approach described in the report places economic interests and the restoration of business ties ahead of the principle of territorial integrity.
Conclusion. Instead of “peace through strength,” the approach described by the NYT points toward seeking a settlement through economic incentives for the aggressor, potentially at Ukraine’s expense. Kyiv therefore faces the risk of negotiations between Washington and Moscow that could directly affect Ukraine’s interests.