The amount of explosives discovered near the Balkan Stream gas pipeline, which transports Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary, would not have been sufficient to disable the facility. The incident may have been a Russian intelligence provocation ahead of Hungary’s elections.
Major General and Andromeda founder Mykola Zentsev made the assessment in comments to The Guardian, as reported by Ukrinform.
Despite statements by Serbian and Hungarian authorities about a “threat to energy sovereignty,” weapons experts have questioned whether the explosives were actually intended to carry out sabotage.
According to Zentsev, calculations conducted by Andromeda showed that the four kilograms of explosives seized by Serbia’s military security service in the northern Serbian town of Kanjiža could not have caused serious damage to the gas pipeline.
Andromeda experts analyzed the specifications of the pipeline transporting Russian gas to Hungary via Türkiye, Bulgaria and Serbia and calculated the amount of explosives that could theoretically cause significant damage.
Zentsev said a substantially larger quantity would have been required.
“Four kilograms of explosives would not have been enough to stop the pipeline from operating,” the expert said.
He stressed that even if the four kilograms of plastic explosive had been placed in an optimal position, they would most likely have caused only localized damage that could have been repaired within several days, without causing a prolonged disruption to gas supplies.
“This does not correspond to the objective of a classic act of sabotage aimed at disabling critical infrastructure for weeks or months,” Zentsev said, supporting the conclusion that the incident was likely a provocation.
He noted that, based on publicly available evidence, the explosives were found several hundred meters from the gas pipeline, and there was no evidence that an attempt had been made to attach them directly to the infrastructure.
The expert also suggested that the incident was likely a false-flag operation carried out by Russian military intelligence, the GRU.
“This is consistent with the GRU’s modus operandi,” Zentsev said, emphasizing the military nature of the incident.
In the expert’s assessment, the parties most likely to benefit from the incident were Hungary’s incumbent government, which could gain an additional political advantage ahead of the elections, and Russia, which has an interest in using such incidents to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the international community.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said on April 5 that police had discovered explosives near the Balkan Stream gas pipeline, which transports Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary.