Over the past year, the air war has reached a new level. If in May-June 2025 both sides were still increasing their capabilities, then in May-June 2026 they are already conducting two different, but equally systematic campaigns of strategic attrition.
Russia. Over the year, the intensity of strikes has increased manifold. If in the spring of 2025, massive attacks usually included 100-300 strike UAVs and were carried out several times a month, then in the spring of 2026 they have become almost regular. Large combined strikes already include 300-700+ drones, and individual attacks – 700-900 air attack vehicles simultaneously.
In May 2026 alone, Russia used more than 7,500 long-range UAVs and about 7,700 missiles and drones in total. This is the absolute maximum for the entire period of the full-scale war.
At the same time, tactics have changed. Instead of the “Shahed — missiles” scheme, multi-wave operations are used using false targets, strike UAVs, cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as repeated waves of attacks after a few hours. The main goal is not a single object, but to overload the Ukrainian air defense and exhaust its ammunition.
Ukraine. During this same period, the Ukrainian campaign has changed even more radically. If in May-June 2025, Deep Strike was mainly in the nature of individual strikes on refineries, oil depots and airfields, then in 2026 a full-fledged multi-level Middle Strike + Deep Strike system was formed. At the same time, the main target of the attacks was specific military and critical infrastructure facilities. Instead of overloading the air defense (although this technique is also used), Ukraine has relied on the pinpoint destruction of Russian air defense.
In May 2026 alone, about 210 strikes on the operational rear of Russian troops were confirmed, and about 145 more strikes during the first half of June. At the same time, the number of strikes on the Russian oil infrastructure increased to 33 in May and 28 in June, while in April there were 18. At the same time, priority targets were no longer only refineries, but also air defense complexes, radars, electronic warfare equipment, headquarters, ammunition depots, railway junctions, bridges and enterprises of the defense-industrial complex.
The range of strikes has also increased significantly. If in 2025 flights of 1000–1200 km were the exception, then in 2026, the destruction of targets at a distance of more than 2000 km was confirmed. The development of systems with a declared range of up to 3000 km is also ongoing.
I will try to summarize. Over the year, Russia has relied on the mass nature of air strikes, while Ukraine has relied on systematic ones. The enemy’s strategy is aimed at exhausting Ukrainian air defense by using a record number of drones and missiles. The Ukrainian strategy is aimed at systematically reducing Russia’s military-economic potential by destroying logistics, air defense, fuel and energy, and defense-industrial infrastructure. If in 2025 air strikes were mainly isolated operations, in 2026 they turned into continuous strategic campaigns, which became one of the key factors in the war of attrition.