1. Available Arsenal and Production Capabilities of the Adversary
High-Precision Missile Stockpiles as of August–September 2026:
• Ballistic and aeroballistic missiles: approximately 130 Iskander-M missiles, approximately 50 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, and approximately 50 North Korean KN-23/24 missiles.
• Cruise missiles: more than 450 Kalibr missiles, approximately 100 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, more than 600 Oniks anti-ship missiles, and more than 120 Tsirkon hypersonic missiles.
• Surface-to-surface use of air-defense missiles: approximately 400 missiles from S-300/S-400 systems, including RM-48U/48N6 variants.
Production Dynamics for October–November 2026:
• Missile systems: more than 200 units per month, including approximately 65 Iskander-M missiles and approximately 87 Kh-101 missiles. The projected gross output for two months is approximately 400–440 missiles.
• Strike UAVs: the accumulated stockpile of piston-powered Shahed/Geran-2 drones is estimated at up to 10,000 units. The production rate of jet-powered Geran-4/5 drones is approximately 2,000 units per month. The projected production of jet-powered UAVs over two months is approximately 4,000 units.
2. Status and Potential of Launch Platforms
• Strategic aviation: 38 Tu-95MS aircraft with a typical load of 2–4 Kh-101 missiles per aircraft and 13 Tu-160 aircraft capable of carrying up to 12 Kh-101 missiles each. The total one-time launch capacity of strategic aviation is up to 300 missiles; the practically deployable salvo is estimated at 40–80 missiles.
• Naval and ground-based platforms: russian Black Sea Fleet ships and submarines equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, with a salvo capacity of up to 24–32 missiles; Iskander ballistic missile launchers, with more than 50 launchers deployed along the border and in the theater of operations.
3. Model Scenario of a Massive Combined Strike
To calculate the maximum load on air and missile defense systems and critical infrastructure, a baseline attack configuration was established: either a single salvo or a series of 2–3 coordinated waves.
• Shahed-136 piston-powered UAVs: 300 units, 57.7%. Primary purpose: exhausting air-defense resources, exposing positions, and striking area targets.
• Geran-4/5 jet-powered UAVs: 100 units, 19.2%. Primary purpose: high-speed penetration of the close air-defense zone and saturation of engagement channels.
• Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles: 100 units, 19.2%. Primary purpose: precision strikes against energy and transport infrastructure.
• Ballistic and aeroballistic missiles: 20 units, 3.9%. Primary purpose: striking critical air-defense/missile-defense facilities and command posts.
Total, excluding decoys: 520 strike assets, 100%. Objective: overload detection and interception systems.
When Gerbera-type UAV decoys are employed, the overall density of airborne targets in a single salvo may reach 700–800 units.
4. Operational Forecast for October–November 2026
• Frequency of massive attacks: based on the assessment of russia’s ability to organize 3–4 combined strikes per month, the adversary’s total capacity over the two-month period amounts to 6–8 high-density massive attacks.
• Drone terror intensity: alongside massive missile waves, daily use of 80–130 strike UAVs of various types is expected in order to maintain continuous pressure on air-defense systems.
• Key risk: a high degree of mixing of slow-moving, jet-powered, and ballistic targets within a single 30–45-minute time window, aimed at exhausting the ammunition stocks of Patriot, SAMP/T, and NASAMS systems.
IAC “Andromeda” forecast for October–November 2026: assessment of russia’s missile and drone potential and parameters of combined attacks.