For many people interested in geopolitics and involved in developing and ensuring Ukraine’s security, the past more than ten years look like a prolonged and somewhat cynical performance built around populist promises of NATO and EU membership. From the abolition of Ukraine’s non-aligned status to the incorporation of the Euro-Atlantic course into the Constitution, Ukrainians were repeatedly sold the same beautifully packaged story year after year.
With every election cycle came the same message: just a little more, a few more laws adopted, and we will find ourselves under NATO’s unconditional umbrella and at the welcoming doors of the European Union. A feeling of déjà vu with every new political cycle.
But let us be honest with ourselves. This was not simply optimism or short-sightedness. It was a deliberate and carefully designed deception of a nation that was lulled for years with sweet illusions instead of being prepared for harsh reality.
The Trade in Illusions by Politicians
The greatest cynicism of this situation lies in who promoted these slogans. Political operators, both major and minor, quickly understood that Ukrainians’ desire to live in safety was an ideal political currency. The NATO and EU issues were turned into convenient electoral battering rams for gaining positions, budgets, and public platforms.
Why systematically develop our own defense-industrial complex and army if it was possible simply to say on television that tomorrow we would be in NATO and that Article 5 would protect us? For many, it was perfectly obvious that we were not going to be accepted in the format being loudly proclaimed from political podiums. But political trends prevailed.
Selling rose-colored glasses was much more profitable and easier than telling the nation the harsh truth: Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO or the EU in the next 20–30 years, for objective reasons and also because of the subjective positions of individual countries, meaning perhaps never.
The incorporation of the official NATO membership course into the Constitution in 2019 became the culmination of political marketing. In Japanese philosophy, the path itself can sometimes be more important than the destination, so the direction was correct, although it was not honest with the Ukrainian people, who were never told that there would be no final finish line in this marathon.
The Actual Reasons Why NATO Membership Is Impossible
The main deception lies in the fact that politicians concealed the basic legal principles of the Alliance itself.
First, under Articles 10 and 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty and established NATO practice, a country with an unresolved armed conflict and disputed borders cannot be admitted because this would automatically mean the direct involvement of the entire Alliance in the war.
Since the occupation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014, this barrier has effectively become insurmountable for Ukraine, while no one is going to rewrite or amend NATO’s fundamental treaty for Ukraine.
Second, the Alliance operates on the principle of consensus. Admission of a new member requires unanimous approval by all 32 member states. Even if 31 countries support Ukraine and one country, for example Hungary or Slovakia, blocks the decision, membership becomes legally impossible.
This is an objective reality that was simply concealed from the public.
The Actual Reasons Why EU Membership Is Unlikely
The situation with the European Union is no less difficult, but the obstacles are primarily economic and procedural.
First, the EU is fundamentally a common market governed by a strict bureaucratic system. Admitting a country as large as Ukraine, with its enormous agricultural sector, would fundamentally disrupt the existing system of European subsidies and agricultural support, something farmers and governments in neighboring countries, including Poland, France, and Hungary, are already concerned about.
Second, EU accession requires compliance with 35 negotiation chapters, with each member state able to block progress on individual chapters.
Even under ideal reform conditions, the process of reaching agreement can stretch over decades. Under conditions of post-war reconstruction and uncertainty, European taxpayers are simply not prepared to assume the full financial burden of Ukraine’s integration.
Despite the objective reasons why Ukraine cannot be admitted either to NATO or the EU, we have been fed different versions of the same promise year after year.
These versions have included and continue to include entire combinations of future legal and political arrangements that ultimately cost nothing because they do not change the fundamental issue of membership.
This is the theatrical farce of a situation that has misled the Ukrainian people for many years.
Why the Authorities Cannot Tell the Truth Now
Today, we find ourselves in the most dangerous dead end.
Why does the government, even while seeing the actual state of affairs, continue to make these promises?
The answer is simple: the system has trapped itself in its own deception.
For years, particularly during the last decade, society was conditioned to believe that NATO and EU membership was the only meaning of the struggle and the only salvation.
Admitting now that this will not happen would deliver a devastating blow to the nation’s morale. The authorities fear that an open acknowledgment of the truth would cause profound disillusionment and paralyze state institutions.
The complete and abrupt destruction of this long-established ideological picture of the world during a difficult war could trigger internal upheaval that might cost Ukraine its very statehood.
The authorities have become hostages to a myth that politicians themselves constructed.
The End of the Illusions Confirmed by Zaluzhnyi
Valerii Zaluzhnyi has effectively brought these years of manipulation to a conclusion. His latest statements have openly highlighted what experts had been saying quietly: the path of Euro-Atlantic integration was not wrong in itself, but it has no final destination.
Ukraine will not join NATO in the form that has been promised for years.
Zaluzhnyi directly noted that years of promises had turned into fairy tales. Another conclusion, unfortunately, was that NATO operates according to outdated doctrines from the last century and is bureaucratically unprepared for modern challenges.
Recognition of this fact by a general of such stature is not betrayal, as many critics have suggested. It is a sobering diagnosis that Ukrainian society must finally accept.
The war has made us stronger and freed us from unnecessary illusions. We have grown up, and NATO understands this as well.
The Ukrainian people have demonstrated their pride, resilience, and heroism on the battlefield. We no longer have the right to live on illusions or depend on decisions made by others.
It is time to take off the rose-colored glasses and hold politicians accountable for the time lost and the cynical lies.
No NATO country will come to fight for Ukraine with its own troops. NATO membership is not merely an illusion; it is a cynical deception that neither Ukraine nor its partners are willing to acknowledge.
But recognizing reality is not weakness. It is the highest expression of patriotism and respect for our own soldiers.
When you call things by their proper names, it is not only honest with everyone. It also helps formulate realistic objectives for the war and determine viable paths for national development.
Our only genuine security guarantees are modern Armed Forces, a powerful domestic defense industry, independent energy, and an autonomous economy.
Cooperation with foreign partners should be strictly pragmatic, based on technology, weapons, and shared geopolitical interests, without asking to be admitted somewhere at any cost.
The authorities should gradually but firmly change the narrative, preparing society for a long, autonomous, and rational struggle to protect its sovereignty.
The road ahead is difficult, and Ukraine must rely first and foremost on its own spirit, its own shield, and its own sword.
Volodymyr Tarasenko, PhD in Military Sciences