Kremlin statements about readiness for negotiations increasingly resemble an element of an information campaign rather than a genuine intention to end the war. Analysis by the Andromeda Information and Analytical Center of military activity, weapons production rates, and the nature of combat operations indicates otherwise: the adversary is preparing for a prolonged war while simultaneously attempting to convince the world of its supposed readiness for peace.
Military practice confirms the gap between words and actions. Despite its negotiating rhetoric, the russian military continues offensive operations and is increasing the intensity of its air strikes. While in 2024–2025 mass attacks were generally considered to involve 100–150 means of air attack, today the adversary regularly uses 400–500 attack UAVs simultaneously with 70–80 cruise and ballistic missiles, attempting to overwhelm Ukraine’s air-defense system and exhaust its resources.
At the same time, the Kremlin continues to expand military production. According to open-source estimates, the russian defense industry produces approximately 60–70 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 40–50 Kh-101 cruise missiles, up to 25 Kalibr missiles, and up to 10 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles per month. At the same time, production of attack drones and decoy drones has increased sharply. It is precisely weapons-production rates, rather than negotiating rhetoric, that are currently the most objective indicator of the Kremlin’s real intentions.
At the same time, Ukraine is systematically moving combat operations into the adversary’s strategic rear. In 2026, the intensity of strikes against military airfields, ammunition depots, defense-industry enterprises, and logistics hubs has increased significantly. A separate direction has been the campaign against fuel and energy infrastructure: Ukrainian strikes have already temporarily disabled more than 25% of russia’s oil-refining capacity, affecting fuel supplies and the export capabilities of the aggressor state.
No less important has been the intensification of pressure on russia’s “shadow fleet.” Strikes against tankers, port infrastructure, and logistics facilities are making sanctions evasion more difficult, increasing the cost of maritime transportation, and forcing the Kremlin to spend additional resources protecting its maritime communications.
At the same time, international support for Ukraine is strengthening. Decisions by allies to increase military assistance and expand defense production indicate that the West is also preparing for long-term containment of the aggressor state.
In the coming months, a transition of the war toward a political settlement should not be expected. Most likely, the Kremlin will continue combining negotiating rhetoric with increasing military pressure, expanding the scale of missile and drone strikes and continuing offensive operations along selected sections of the front.
At the same time, Ukraine will increase the range, intensity, and effectiveness of strikes against the adversary’s military-industrial complex, logistics, oil-refining industry, and maritime infrastructure. Whereas the main trend previously was the intensification of russian air attacks, the war has now entered a phase of bilateral escalation, with both sides expanding their capabilities to strike deep into each other’s military and economic potential.
This is precisely why the Kremlin’s peace statements should not be assessed separately from actual military trends. Today, they indicate preparations not for the end of the war, but for its further escalation.
russia talks about peace but is preparing to intensify missile strikes and offensive operations.