July 5, 2026
Russia’s navy has finally lost its monopoly in the region. Ukraine’s Defense Forces have driven Russian forces out of the western, central, and parts of the southern Black Sea, restoring control over strategically important maritime routes.
The scale of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s losses is telling: approximately 30% of its combat assets have been destroyed or disabled, while more than 40 Russian warships and boats have been hit since the beginning of the full-scale war.
Breaking those losses down by class makes the picture even more striking. Of the Russian Navy’s 33 combat ships, four have been destroyed and eight damaged. The losses among amphibious assault ships have been even more severe: of 34 vessels, 15 have been destroyed and 10 damaged — meaning that almost half of this class has effectively been taken out of service.
The auxiliary fleet has also suffered significant losses, with three vessels destroyed and nine damaged out of a total of 23.
As a direct consequence, Russia’s missile carriers have completely withdrawn from Crimea and relocated to Novorossiysk. The waters once controlled by the Russian fleet have now become what can be described as a “gray zone” covering approximately 25,000 square kilometers — an area Russian warships are increasingly unwilling to enter.
A decisive role in this shift in the balance of power has been played by unmanned surface vessels (USVs). The Magura V5 maritime drones developed by Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence and the Sea Baby systems operated by the Security Service of Ukraine have become genuine game changers in the naval war.
They have been used to strike more than a dozen Russian vessels, ranging from missile ships and patrol boats to large amphibious assault ships.
At the same time, the capabilities of Ukrainian naval drones extend far beyond direct attacks. The systems are increasingly being used for remote mine-laying, deploying seabed mines along routes used by the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Crimea.
New generations and modified versions of these unmanned vessels are also emerging. Some are being equipped with air-defense missiles and rocket artillery systems, giving them the ability to defend themselves against aircraft while also striking targets along the coastline.
Alongside these offensive capabilities, Ukraine is simultaneously building the defensive component of maritime control — a dedicated mine-countermeasures fleet.
Five large vessels have already joined the newly established mine-countermeasures division of the Ukrainian Navy, according to Ukrinform. The unit includes Sandown-class minehunters “Chernihiv” and “Cherkasy,” as well as Alkmaar-class vessels “Melitopol,” “Mariupol,” and “Henichesk.”
Some of the crews have already completed training according to NATO standards and are ready to begin clearing mines from the Black Sea — a critical prerequisite for the full restoration of commercial shipping in the region.
A New Maritime Balance
The transformation of the northern Black Sea is no longer simply a story about Russia losing individual ships. It represents a fundamental change in the regional balance of power.
Ukraine has demonstrated that a fleet does not necessarily need conventional surface combatants to challenge a significantly larger naval force. A combination of maritime drones, precision strikes, mine warfare, intelligence, and coastal defense can deny an adversary freedom of movement across a substantial maritime area.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet once enjoyed overwhelming superiority in the region. Today, its most valuable assets have been pushed away from the Ukrainian coastline, while the waters previously dominated by Moscow have become increasingly contested and inaccessible to Russian naval forces.
The era of uncontested Russian naval dominance in the northern Black Sea is coming to an end.