The decade following 2014 destroyed the main myth of the 20th century: the idea that international law, institutions, and paper guarantees are capable of protecting a state. The era of a “rules-based international order” has come to an end. In its place, classical geopolitics has returned: harsh, transactional, and based primarily on the balance of power. At times it may resemble chaos with anarchic undertones, but it is not chaos.

The decline of international law and the dismantling of the global security architecture are already facts. Although NATO and other institutions still exist, the picture regarding the effectiveness of global institutions is clear even to the most persistent optimists:

• The impotence of global institutions. The UN, OSCE, and international courts have become bureaucratic platforms incapable of preventing or stopping wars. The veto system and procedural deadlocks have undermined their effectiveness.
• The zero value of “guarantees.” Paper memoranda and declarations of “support” do not work. The only guarantees that matter in the 21st century are direct, legally binding military alliances or a state’s own nuclear and conventional capabilities.
• The collapse of the values-based approach. The foreign policy of leading powers has finally shed its idealism. Alliances are no longer built on shared ideologies. They are determined by immediate benefits, access to critical resources, and a cold calculation of security interests.

A world without functioning international law has not descended into chaos. Instead, it has begun operating according to rules that bear a striking resemblance to relations within a criminal organization. In this system, power, ruthlessness, and authority are basic conditions for survival.

But raw force alone cannot maintain control for long. Hard power must be balanced by a specific form of trust and by the fear of losing authority. Just as in a criminal environment, in modern geopolitics the most dangerous thing is to appear weak or incapable of standing behind one’s words. When a powerful player shows weakness or forgives defiance, its authority is undermined, and both partners and adversaries immediately begin testing its strength.

Unfortunately for modern diplomats, the rules of conduct are no longer based on the principles of international law and formal obligations, but on unwritten “codes” that shape a new format of international relations. When official rules stop working, informal agreements and a balance of fear come into play. We can clearly see this in both current events and the actions of individual states.

The formation of a new international security reality already includes the militarization of budgets, a nuclear renaissance, and a comprehensive reassessment of regional alliances.

How Ukraine Can Survive in This Cynical World of Criminalized and Managed Chaos

There are three pillars of state survival:

1. Increasing the capacity to inflict guaranteed damage.

The only effective deterrent is not moral condemnation by the international community, but a mathematical calculation: the cost of an attack must clearly exceed any potential benefit for the aggressor.

2. Relying on technological and military autonomy.

Dependence on foreign weapons supplies, financial support, or shifts in political sentiment in foreign parliaments makes a country hostage to external decisions. Its own defense industry, energy sector, and critical technologies are the only foundation of genuine sovereignty.

3. Actively seeking small pragmatic coalitions and bilateral alliances.

Large blocs with dozens of participants are paralyzed by internal bureaucracy and veto rights. Unfortunately, membership in NATO and the EU often turns into a “carrot in front of the nose” without rapid implementation.

However, such monolithic alliances are already becoming a thing of the past. Flexible regional alliances of three or four states, united by a common direct threat and prepared to act without waiting for global institutions, represent the real future of the next decade.

The main lesson of the past decade is harsh: naivety and faith in abstract promises in world politics are paid for with catastrophes.

The world has returned to its natural state of fierce competition governed by the laws of power and authority. Those who survive are not the ones who proclaim the right slogans, but those who build real capabilities, withstand pressure, and rely primarily on their own potential.

The illusion of the rules of the game is disappearing. In the new geopolitical reality, pragmatism, power, technological autonomy, and the ability to inflict unacceptable costs are becoming the fundamental conditions of state survival.