June 1, 2026
Let us wish Armenia success and good fortune as part of the civilized world and democracy.
Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7. Moscow is attempting to secure a victory through its proxies similar to what happened in Georgia. Following its defeat in Hungary, russia has gone all-in to halt Armenia’s European integration.
Economic blackmail. The Kremlin has officially threatened to cancel preferential supplies, attempting to exploit Yerevan’s critical energy dependence. Today, Armenia purchases around 87% of its natural gas from Russian Gazprom at a fixed price of approximately $170 per 1,000 cubic meters, significantly below the market price.
Russian intelligence influence. Investigative reports already published about deployments of Russian agents to Armenia only confirm the intensified activity of the Kremlin’s intelligence services.
Dozens of operatives from the SVR, Russia’s FSB, and the GRU are coordinating the pro-Russian opposition and collecting and publicizing compromising material against Armenia’s current government.
The Russian online network “Matryoshka” has flooded social media with deepfakes. More than 340 fake videos have been identified, with the main message aimed at frightening Armenians with the prospect of war with russia if Pashinyan’s government wins. The United Kingdom has officially recognized the campaign as interference in democratic elections and imposed additional sanctions on those behind “Matryoshka.”
At the same time, pressure on the Armenian diaspora in Moscow has intensified. Russian security forces are allegedly blackmailing Armenian businesspeople — the community numbers more than 1 million people — in an attempt to pressure their relatives into voting for pro-Kremlin forces.
But Armenia is not on its knees. It knows how to defend itself and has already made its choice without asking Moscow for permission. Armenia’s Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case on treason and espionage against opposition candidate Armen Tevanyan. He is accused of transferring classified intelligence information in exchange for $622,000.
The republic’s anti-corruption authorities have already detained 14 people who allegedly organized extensive voter-bribery networks using money from russia.
Yerevan is dismantling the country’s pro-Russian security architecture, under which Armenian security officers were trained in Moscow and, after leaving the service, took comfortable positions at Gazprom and other major Russian corporations. A new Foreign Counterintelligence Service (FCIS) is now operational and is expected to become fully functional by mid-2026.
Armenia’s 2026 defense budget amounts to 563 billion drams, approximately $1.47 billion, with arms and military equipment procurement already diversified in an effort to avoid dependence on russia.
The Armenian army, numbering approximately 44,000 service members, has been placed on heightened readiness to protect the country’s borders against possible Russian sabotage and provocations during the voting period.
According to May opinion polls by PolitPro and Reuters analysis, despite intense pressure from russia, a pro-Russian comeback is unlikely. However, the composition of the future parliament is expected to change.
The ruling party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Civil Contract, is firmly leading the race with approximately 46% of the vote. The government’s pro-European course is expected to receive a mandate from voters, but Pashinyan will most likely lose his constitutional supermajority of two-thirds of the seats and will be forced to form a coalition.
The main pro-Kremlin political force — the Strong Armenia party, established at the beginning of the year and led by Russian-linked billionaire Samvel Karapetyan — is polling at around 13.3%. It is expected to become Moscow’s principal voice in the new parliament.
The rest of the opposition is also expected to clear the electoral threshold: the conservative Armenia Alliance (Hayastan Dashink) of former President Robert Kocharyan with 9.1%, and the populist Prosperous Armenia party of Gagik Tsarukyan with 7.6%. The new centrist force DOK is also rapidly gaining momentum, polling at 8.5%.
According to this forecast, Russian intelligence services and the “gas weapon” will not be able to break the Armenian public’s determination to leave the Kremlin’s orbit. Pashinyan is expected to remain the frontrunner. However, Moscow will gain a controllable minority in parliament through which it will attempt to destabilize the country from within.
For Ukraine, a future victory by pro-European forces in Yerevan would directly weaken russia and effectively close the CSTO’s Caucasus project. Armenia has already frozen its participation in the military bloc, and following the defeat of pro-Kremlin parties in the elections, it could initiate the legal process of leaving Moscow’s orbit.
For Ukraine, this matters because a major reputational blow to putin would demonstrate russia’s geopolitical weakness.
The elections could also deliver a logistical blow to Russia’s war budget. The United States and Turkey are actively promoting the creation of a transport corridor through southern Armenia, bypassing russia and Iran. The route would connect Central Asia with Europe through Turkey.
Implementation of the project would deprive Moscow of billions of dollars in transit revenues that the Kremlin uses to purchase weapons and finance its war against Ukraine.
Another potential benefit for Ukraine following the Armenian elections would be the freeing up of Turkey’s diplomatic resources — Turkey being one of Kyiv’s strategic partners — allowing Ankara to focus more closely on Black Sea regional security and support for Kyiv rather than resolving disputes in the Caucasus.
Therefore, let us wish Armenia success and good fortune as part of the civilized world and democracy.
Mykola Zentsev, international security expert, owner of a humanitarian demining company, Major General (Ret.)
Based on material from Ukrinform.