Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing for a further escalation of the war against Ukraine, as ending the conflict without achieving his stated objectives could be perceived as a threat to his political position and even his physical safety. The Economist reports this, citing sources close to the Kremlin, members of the Russian elite and Western officials.
According to the publication, Western countries have become increasingly concerned in recent weeks about the possibility of the war expanding beyond Ukraine. Some sources cited by The Economist claim that CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently traveled to Moscow, where he sought to warn the Kremlin against attacking NATO countries. Other sources told the publication that the CIA chief delivered a pessimistic assessment of Russia’s prospects in the war and urged Putin to begin negotiations.
Putin may have interpreted US warnings as a sign of weakness
According to sources close to the Kremlin, after several weeks of deliberation this summer, Putin appears to have opted for continuing and intensifying the conflict.
One of the Russian president’s longtime acquaintances believes Putin may have interpreted Ratcliffe’s visit as a sign of American weakness. The source says Putin viewed a similar visit by CIA Director William Burns to Moscow in November 2021 in much the same way.
At the time, Burns warned the Russian president about the consequences of a potential invasion of Ukraine. Three months later, Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
The Economist cautions that Putin’s true motives cannot be known with certainty. However, according to the publication’s sources, one of the key reasons for continuing the war is the preservation of Putin’s personal power and, ultimately, his own security.
“The tsar is naked”
According to one source cited by The Economist, the Kremlin’s problem is no longer primarily Russia’s economic situation or the lack of major military gains, but the amount of time that has been lost.
After almost five years of war, it is becoming increasingly difficult to portray any outcome as a victory. Within Russia’s elite, one source says, there is a growing sense that “the tsar is naked”.
For Putin, ending the war without achieving at least what the Kremlin considers a minimum objective could therefore be particularly dangerous. That objective is believed to include establishing full control over Donbas.
One insider claims that Putin once expressed concern about his fate in the event of failure, saying: “They’ll hang me.”
The Kremlin is also dissatisfied with the war’s current trajectory
At the same time, continuing the fighting in its current format is not delivering the results the Kremlin wants.
“Scenarios based on inertia are disadvantageous for the Kremlin,” one member of the Russian elite told The Economist. According to the source, a prolonged war is steadily consuming Russia’s economic resources and political capital.
The Kremlin may therefore seek to raise the stakes rather than simply allow the conflict to continue along its current trajectory, while still avoiding a direct military confrontation with NATO.
A new wave of hybrid escalation against the West
The Economist suggests that one potential direction of escalation could be an intensification of Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine’s Western allies.
This could include sabotage targeting logistics routes, attacks against European defence-industry facilities producing weapons for Ukraine, and other operations aimed at undermining Western support for Kyiv.
At the same time, Western intelligence services reportedly believe Putin does not want a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO. The Kremlin is therefore likely to seek to operate below the threshold of open conflict with the alliance.
More attacks on Ukraine and a possible new mobilisation
On the battlefield in Ukraine, further escalation could mean a sharp increase in missile and drone strikes.
According to The Economist, Russia may focus particular attention on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, seeking to inflict maximum damage ahead of the new heating season.
Another possible step is a major expansion of Russia’s military manpower. Citing Russian sources, the publication reports that Moscow could seek to bring as many as 300,000–400,000 additional personnel into the armed forces.
The Kremlin therefore faces a paradox. Ending the war without a declared “victory” could put Putin’s political future at risk, while continuing the conflict at its current pace is steadily draining Russia’s resources.
According to The Economist’s sources, this dilemma may push the Russian leadership not toward compromise, but toward an attempt to dramatically raise the stakes.
For Ukraine, such a scenario could mean intensified attacks on critical infrastructure, another wave of Russian mobilisation, and increased sabotage and hybrid operations by Russia against European countries.
At the same time, the prospect of escalation does not necessarily mean that Russia is preparing for a direct war with NATO. More likely, the Kremlin will seek to increase the cost of Western support for Ukraine while avoiding actions that could trigger a direct military response from the alliance.