Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Ankara has reached an understanding with its allies and that the fleets of the respective countries are already planning the naval component of future security guarantees for Ukraine. In addition to the maritime component, the proposed guarantees include land and air components. Fidan emphasized the serious risk of the war expanding into the Black Sea and called for attacks on ports, tankers, and fishing vessels to be prevented.

According to the Andromeda Information and Analytical Center, the largest buyers of Russian oil transported by tankers are China, India, and Turkey. The largest maritime buyers of Russian grain are Turkey and Egypt. Therefore, Ankara’s proposal should be viewed pragmatically through the lens of Turkey’s own interests: securing stable supplies of oil and agricultural products from russia while simultaneously consolidating its status as a key maritime power in the region.

Ukraine, for its part, must integrate its own national interests into the structure of Turkey’s proposals rather than simply accept an external security architecture without modification.

This means:

• Ensuring that “shipping security” does not turn into de facto legalization and protection of russia’s shadow fleet and Moscow’s export flows.
• Synchronizing the naval component with the land and air components, so that Turkey’s presence in the Black Sea does not remain an isolated showcase without a genuine deterrent effect.
• Establishing clear mandates for responding to attacks on ports and vessels, rather than relying on declarative calls without an enforcement mechanism.

Turkey is more interested in the stability of Black Sea routes than in the defeat of russia. This does not make its proposal unacceptable, but it requires Kyiv to pursue a pragmatic negotiation: support for Turkey’s role in exchange for guarantees preventing the “security guarantees” from becoming an instrument for servicing Russian exports.

Turkey says it is ready to lead the naval component of future security guarantees for Ukraine in the Black Sea.